Global markets struggled in June with across-the-board declines. Although investor concerns over increased US-China trade friction took the spotlight, a raft of other risks, such as a hawkish Federal Reserve, a flattening yield curve and rising oil prices, also took markets lower. But is it all bad news? We believe there are reasons to be optimistic. Global earnings estimates remain strong along with attractive valuations, and the upcoming second quarter reporting season in the US may offer investors opportunities for alpha. Among battered emerging markets (EM), some provide long-term opportunities for investors such as India.
ASEAN Roundtable series was held recently to discuss the concerns regarding the U.S. led trade wars that is causing increased uncertainties, potential spillover effects on the financial markets, putting pressure on the short-term macroeconomic outlook, as well as posing significant policy challenges on Asian emerging markets economies, including ASEAN.
It is noted during the session that “President Trump’s “America First” policy is causing global instability, in geopolitics, economies and trade. The U.S. Fed is also showing less concern than ever for the impact of its monetary policies on non-American economies.
Do higher rates augur trouble for global markets?
1. April Market Review
Markets generally moved higher in April as investors repriced the strength of a late-cycle US economy.