THE government, in the latest Economic Report, forecasts its fiscal deficit to decline to 3.4% in 2019 from 3.7% this year underpinned by much higher revenue collection, especially from investment income.

In the report, published in conjunction with the tabling of Budget 2019 by Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng, it said federal government revenue was expected to increase by 10.7% to RM261.81 billion from RM235.45 billion this year.

Operating expenditure is expected to increase by 10.4% to RM259.85 billion from RM235.45 billion this year.

Development expenditure is forecast to dip by 0.5% to RM54.04bil from RM54.33 billion this year as the government reins in its spending.

Tax revenue

It said total federal government revenue, including special Petronas dividend, is forecast at RM261.8 billion or 17.1% of GDP.  This is an increase of 10.7% from RM236.46 billion this year.

Direct tax collection, which constitutes 76.7% to tax revenue is estimated at RM135.1 billion – an increase of 1.2% compared with 2018 revised estimates of RM133.47 billion.

“This is mainly contributed by higher collection from petroleum income tax (PITA) of RM18.08 billion compared to RM16.84 billion estimated in 2018 on account of modest assumption of crude oil price,” it said.

Income tax

Individual income tax is expected to be marginally higher by RM34.95 billion compared with RM34.80 billion this year.

Corporate income tax (CITA) is expected to increase by 1.3% to RM70.18 billion from RM70.53 billion. The main contributor to CITA collection is from the services sector primarily from the financial services.

Revenue from other direct taxes comprising stamp duties, RPGT and other taxes is expected to increase by 4.4% to RM8.2 billion.

The increase in stamp duties and real property gains tax (RPGT) to RM6.3 billion and RM1.8 billiom are in line with the expected stable property market.

Indirect tax

Indirect tax collection is forecast to decline slightly to RM41.08 billion from RM41.22 billion.  However, the reintroduction of the Sales and Service Tax (SST) is estimated to see collection improve by 6.4% to RM11.4 billion due to higher demand for vehicles.

Export duty is expected to remain flat at RM1.60 billion while import duty is projected to grow 5% to RM2.94 billion from RM2.80 billion due to estimated duty collection on completer-built-up motorcars, machines and spare parts, resin and plastic materials.

Non-tax revenue

Licences and permits and also investment income are expected to increase by 38.7% to RM85.66 billion from RM61.76 billion. Of the Non-tax revenue expected to be collected in 2019, investment income is expected to jump 61.2% to RM59.52 billion from RM36.93 billion. Licence and permits are expected to generate RM15.56bil in revenue, an increase from RM14.68 billion.

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